After a great start, we lost three in a row.
Look, it’s Spring Training. Everything’s made up and the points don’t matter. We know that. Everyone is figuring things out. Pitchers come in and out and back into the game. If you keep score, you run out of spaces for the subs.
Still, it’s better when you win. Right?
The last two games:
Cleveland @ Seattle
This is going to be the matchup for the opener (Cleve at Seattle). My baby brother is in Seattle and part of me wants to fly down for the game. Having a sneak peek told me a lot about the flaws in Cleveland and the changes in Seattle.
Seattle has had some amazing pitching, but mediocre bats. Now they have some solid thumpers (Josh Naylor!) and the best catcher in the game right now, Cal Raleigh. They’ve never been to the World Series, like ever, so when they get close I do always root for them. Unless they play us.
We did get close in the end, but it was a one-run game, which brings me to a different concern.
Base-running Dilemma
As for Cleveland? Well. The boys are starting to show their muscle, and that’s good, but the aggressive base running is overly so. In specific, the third base play is still making me wince. I trust the first base coach, Sandy Alomar, with my life. I wear his jersey. I am less confident on Rouglas Odor.
| Season | Thrown Out At Home | Manager | 3rd Base Coach |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | Francona | Sarbaugh |
| 2023 | 14 | Francona | Sarbaugh |
| 2024 | 19 | Vogt | Odor |
| 2024 | 17 | Vogt | Odor |
This could be Voghter, it could be Odor, but the aggressive nature is costing us runs. But let’s be fair!
| Season | Out at Home | Out Stealing 2nd | Stealing %age |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12 | 27 | 78% |
| 2023 | 14 | 32 | 78.4% |
| 2024 | 19 | 34 | 81.5% |
| 2025 | 17 | 31 | 78.7% |
So we’re generally good at stealing (81.5% was elite that season). And I clearly need more data to decide if we’re too aggressive.
The Guardians have become “Chaos on the Bases,” and the data shows they have reached a point of diminishing returns. Because our biys had the lowest batting average of any playoff team in history in 2025, they felt forced to over-extend on the bases to “create” runs, which ironically led to them running themselves out of big innings.
It’s more painful because the Guards had a -6 run differential in 2025. We were a team that lived and died by 1-run games.
In 2025, they were 30-7 when scoring 4+ runs, but only 9-30 when scoring 3 or fewer.
In a one run game, being thrown out at home is the potential tying or winning run vanishing.
Red Flag Running
It is early in the 2026 Spring Training schedule, but we already have a small sample size to see if the “too aggressive” trend from 2025 is carrying over into the new year.
After six games…
| Category | 2026 Spring (6 Games) | 2025 Regular Season | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outs at Home | 1 | 17 (Total) | Steady |
| Caught Stealing (2nd) | 3 | 31 (Total) | Spiking |
| Stolen Bases | 5 | 129 (Total) | High Volume |
| Success Rate | 62.5% | 78.7% | Concerning |
- In the regular season, anything below 75% is generally considered “costing the team runs.” To be at 62.5% right now suggests they are still testing limits rather than playing high-percentage baseball.
- Odor is still the Third Base Coach, and the organizational philosophy hasn’t changed. In fact, Hammy mentioned they were going to be aggressive again.
Now look, Spring Training is notoriously “sloppy” for baserunning. Coaches often tell runners to “go no matter what” just to test their leads and jumps against live arms. Third base coaches like Odor use these games to see which outfielders in the division they can challenge in April.
But here is your red flag:
The Guardians currently have a 0 run differential in Spring (35 runs scored, 35 runs allowed) through 6 games.
I plan to check back in with the stats in a couple weeks. I hope it gets better.
See You This Weekend!
The next game we get to watch is Saturday, so I’ll see you then!